Predicting the size, location, and timing of natural hazards is virtually impossible, but now, earth scientists are able to forecast hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and landslides using fractals. A fractal is a mathematical formula of a pattern that repeats over a wide range of size and time scales. These patterns are hidden within more complex systems. A good example of a fractal is the branching system of a river. Small tributaries join to form larger and larger “branches” in the system, but each small piece of the system closely resembles the branching pattern as a whole.
“By understanding the fractal order and scale imbedded in patterns of chaos, researchers found a deeper level of understanding that can be used to predict natural hazards,” says Christopher Barton, a research geologist at the United States Geological Survey, “They can measure past events like a hurricane and then apply fractal mathematics to predict future hurricane events.”
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